Read more on: Expected DA
Speculation of DA/DR from Jan, 2016 on the basis of AICPIN of July, 2015 is not possible. The 2 points increase in July, 2015 AICPIN after 3 points increase is last months AICPIN is not a large variation, but this 2 points increase showing the DA/DR index to 120% for the current month and further two or three month's AICPIN are important. Three situations are given in undermentioned table is showing 123% to 128% future DA/DR from Jan-2016. Readers are requested not to take it final and study the following table. On the other hand the approval of 6% increase in Dearness Allowance & Dearness Relief from July, 2015 is also pending at govt. side, may be announced in 2nd or 3rd week of Sep, 2015 click here to view the news. Further, the estimation of two installment of DA/DR from Jul-2015 & Jan-2016 is important for expected pay and allowances in 7th CPC.
Following table is only showing the effect of Jul-2015 months' AICPIN increase:-
Expected DA/DR from Jan, 2016 - Table by www.staffnews.in
| Expect- ation | Increase/ Decrease Index | Month | Base Year 2001 = 100 | Total of 12 Months | Twelve monthly Average | % increase over 115.76 for DA | DA announced or will be announced |
| 0 | Dec,14 | 253 | 2963 | 246.92 | 113.30% | 113% | |
| Expected DA from July, 2015 is to be announced by Govt. DA/DR from July, 2015 | 1 | Jan,15 | 254 | 2980 | 248.33 | 114.52% | 119% |
| -1 | Feb,15 | 253 | 2995 | 249.58 | 115.60% | ||
| 1 | Mar,15 | 254 | 3010 | 250.83 | 116.68% | ||
| 2 | Apr,15 | 256 | 3024 | 252.00 | 117.69% | ||
| 2 | May,15 | 258 | 3038 | 253.17 | 118.70% | ||
| 3 | Jun,15 | 261 | 3053 | 254.42 | 119.78% | ||
| Jul+AICPIN | 2 | Jul,15 | 263 | 3064 | 255.33 | 120.57% | 120% |
| Expectation of no increase in AICPIN in next 5 months | 0 | Aug,15 | 263 | 3074 | 256.17 | 121.29% | 124% |
| 0 | Sep,15 | 263 | 3084 | 257.00 | 122.01% | ||
| 0 | Oct,15 | 263 | 3094 | 257.83 | 122.73% | ||
| 0 | Nov,15 | 263 | 3104 | 258.67 | 123.45% | ||
| 0 | Dec,15 | 263 | 3114 | 259.50 | 124.17% | ||
| Expected DA/DR from January-2016 | |||||||
| Expectation of total 5 points increase in AICPIN in next 5 months | 1 | Aug,15 | 264 | 3134 | 261.17 | 125.61% | 128% |
| 1 | Sep,15 | 265 | 3145 | 262.08 | 126.40% | ||
| 1 | Oct,15 | 266 | 3155 | 262.92 | 127.12% | ||
| 1 | Nov,15 | 267 | 3164 | 263.67 | 127.77% | ||
| 1 | Dec,15 | 268 | 3171 | 264.25 | 128.27% | ||
| Expected DA/DR from January-2016 | |||||||
| Expectation of total 5 points decline in AICPIN in next 5 months | -1 | Aug,15 | 262 | 3073 | 256.08 | 121.22% | 123% |
| -1 | Sep,15 | 261 | 3081 | 256.75 | 121.80% | ||
| -1 | Oct,15 | 260 | 3088 | 257.33 | 122.30% | ||
| -1 | Nov,15 | 259 | 3094 | 257.83 | 122.73% | ||
| -1 | Dec,15 | 258 | 3099 | 258.25 | 123.09% | ||
| Expected DA/DR from January-2016 | |||||||
You may also download/save the excel sheet for self calculation. The link for excel sheet is given below:
DOWNLOAD: EXCEL FILE FOR EXPECTED DEARNESS CALCULATION TO CALCULATE YOURSELF [click on File-Menu & download]
Press Release of AICPIN for Jul 2015 – 2 Points increased and pegged at 263:-
No. 5/1/2015- CPI
GOVERNMENT OF INDIA
MINISTRY OF LABOUR & EMPLOYMENT
LABOUR BUREAU
Press Release
GOVERNMENT OF INDIA
MINISTRY OF LABOUR & EMPLOYMENT
LABOUR BUREAU
‘CLEREMONT’, SHIMLA-171004
DATED : 3lst August, 2015
Press Release
Consumer Price Index for Industrial Workers (CPI-1W) - July, 2015
The All-India CPHW for July, 2015 increased by 2 points and pegged at 263 (two hundred and , sixty three). On 1-month percentage change, it increased by 0.77 per cent between June, 2015 and July, 2015 when compared with the increase of (+) 2.44 per cent between the same two months a year ago.
The maximum upward pressure to the change in current index came from Housing group contributing (+) 1.33 percentage points to the total change. At item level, Wheat Atta, Arhar Dal, Mustard Oil, Onion, Garlic, Tomato, Gourd, Electricity Charges, etc. are reSponsible for the increase in index. However, this increase was restricted by Rice, Wheat, Coconut Oil, Coconut, Lemon, Sugar, Primary Secondary School Books, Petrol, etc., putting downward pressure on the index.
The year-on-year inflation measured by monthly CPI-1W stood at 4.37 per cent for July, 2015 as compared to 6.10 per cent for the previous month and 7.23 per cent during the correSponding month of the previous year. Similarly, the Food inflation stood at 3.21 per cent against 6.67 per cent of the previous month and 8.11 per cent during the corresponding month of the previous year.
At centre level, Haldia reported the highest increase of 19 points followed by Jamshedpur (15 points) and Bhilai (8 points). Among others, 6 points increase was observed in 2 centres, 5 points in 6 centres, 4 points in 7 centres, 3 points in 12 centres, 2 points in 14 centres and 1 point in 9 centres. On the contrary, Quilon centre recorded a maximum decrease of 6 points. Among others, 3 points decrease was observed in 2 centres, 2 points in 4 centres, and 1 point in 7 centres. Rest of the 11 centres’ indices remained stationary.
The indices of 34 centres are above All India Index and other 43 centres’ indices are below national ”average. The index of Vishakhapathnam is at par with All-India index.
The next index of CPI-1W for the month of August, 2015 will be released on Wednesday, 30th September, 2015. The same will also be available on the office website www. labourbureau. gov. in.
(S.S. NEGI)
DEPUTY DIRECTOR GENERAL
Source:http://labourbureau.nic.in/CPI_IW_Press_Release_July15_EH.pdf
