Cabinet approves additional instalment of Dearness Allowance to Central Government employees and Dearness Relief (DR) to pensioners w.e.f. 01.01.2026 https://pib.gov.in/PressReleaseIframePage.aspx?PRID=2253245&RegID=3&LID=1
Sunday, 19 April 2026
PIB::Cabinet approves additional instalment of Dearness Allowance to Central Government employees and Dearness Relief (DR) to pensioners w.e.f. 01.01.2026
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Welcome to my show. Today we are diving into one of the most defining stories of0:17
our time. how the world order is rapidly changing from uniolar dominance to a0:24
fragmented multipolar reality and where India actually stands in this shifting0:30
landscape. Joining us today is our senior defense0:35
analyst Dr. SR Naranjen. Hello sir. Hello sir. Good evening Jen.0:41
Okay. Um and to set the stage um sir how would you describe the major shifts in0:48
the global order as we enter 2026? Sir the stage was set not for 2026. It0:55
was set almost 18 20 years ago when the uh great depression or rather to say the1:01
2008 economic collapse or economic meltdown happened in USA. That was the1:07
starting point of uh or the foundation was laid for what is today what is happening today that is it dates back to1:15
Obama era because he had shifted most of the industries from America to that of China. China was a became the uh what to1:23
say the major maker uh mover and shaker around the globe when it comes to production based uh uh sector concerned1:31
and at the same time the fall of Japan as a major power as a producing power is1:37
something that is a worrying trend and America was partially responsible for what has happened to Japan if not1:43
directly indirectly it is responsible say from 1987 uh I think why I'm saying 1987 87 is the1:50
peak period of Japan's economy. Virtually it was around five five.5 trillion uh dollars economy whereas1:57
America was around 7.88 trillion economy. So subsequent to it you you see2:03
the Japanese uh there is a virtually Japanese economy stagnating2:09
and there are multiple reasons for it. Let me put three simple reasons. One um2:16
the population has not grown drastically. the uh replacement ratio of Japan is has2:23
fallen drastically. Mhm. Now the replacement ratio is below one.2:28
uh people who are graduates who are unemployable in Japan who are uh earning2:35
their living by working from 7 to 11 uh stores rather to say what we call it as2:42
grocery stores whatever stores it is 7-11 stores and that of uh uh unmarried2:50
Japanese who go back to that of 80s generation or 70s generation that is uh those who are2:57
in the age group of 50 and above has drastically increased. So most of3:02
them are living with the pensions that comes through their parents3:09
and the life expectancy rate of Japan has grown substantially3:14
and new population is not getting added. That's one point where Japan has collapsed. Second,3:21
Korea is a economy that was pitted to be a counterpart to Japan by America. But3:27
is Korea that big an economy or that big a state to challenge the influence of3:33
Japan or for that matter even China? I don't think so. I mean Korea means per say South Korea, not North Korea. Some3:39
people get confused with it. Now comes uh the Europe. Europe is also3:45
having a rather to say I consider it as a victimhood tendency that they allowed3:50
large scale migrations to take place postuh the ISIS crisis starting from 2014. The migration has been one of the3:58
major crisis in Europe. Second crisis is the population crisis. What Japan is4:03
facing the similar crisis Europe is also facing. So uh Europe started to incentivize this4:10
migration. It is typically like uh what we are facing within our country what we call4:16
it as internal migration. We are allowing lot of say for example Tamil4:22
Nadu we are allowing lot of other state people especially the Bengali and the Biharis to come and work over here in4:30
many sectors that is labor intensive sectors. So most of the jobs are taken up by4:36
them. So the the the local population is not having jobs. Either they are not having jobs or they are not inclined to4:42
do jobs. Mhm. The same thing uh uh Europe is facing due to the bestian population migrating4:50
to that of Europe. And now comes to uh the uh isolated landmass called United4:57
States or rather to say the entire America as a continent. So where the problem starts for America5:04
is that uh Trump in his first term wanted to reorient America as a uh prime5:11
mover and shaker around the world with his policies. I think he did some good things by5:17
signing the Abrahamic records wanted to bring peace in the Westian region.5:23
U but his folly was he started to take sides and is going back on uh the5:30
previous regime's uh agreement between Iran and that of us is something that5:35
could have been avoided. Mhm. Because Trump abregated that agreement.5:41
So again he started a fresh crisis over there. Now the second time he is I think5:48
he's over ambitious. Postcoid America has not learned its lessons. America's crisis is twofold5:56
crisis as far as I study it. First is the population crisis.6:02
There is no enough population in America. And he wants to cail the migration. At the same time, Americans6:08
are not reproducing. Even if they are reproducing, there the the uh reproduction ratio of colored people is6:14
more than that of the Anglo-Saxon whites. M6:19
and you can see the racial crimes against Indians also growing in America is because of this factor.6:25
That's one part. Second part is that because they had outsourced their entire production to that of China. Trump by6:31
hook a crook wants to bring back the production sector back to that of United States. But wheels within wheels the6:38
other crisis that America is facing is the domination of dollar is getting over. M6:46
America's rise as a predominant power is directly uh uh related to that of the6:55
price of dollar as a global currency. If not for Henry Kissinger and Richard7:00
Nixon, people may hate them, people may love them, but we cannot ignore both the7:05
two individuals. As a as an individual, I do have my distaste towards how7:11
Kissinger or Nixon had treated India during the 1971 war. But for Americans,7:18
it was a gamecher tenure because he had decoupled the dollar with that of the gold standard.7:25
And Kissinger was very much responsible for bringing in relating making the dollar uh as a currency through which7:33
petrol can be I mean crude oil can be marketed around the world. But now when7:39
Trump took power that a meltdown had started the West Asian powers or West Asian countries the7:46
oil producing economies they started to deviate from their normal trend of using dollar as a currency.7:53
So they started to deal with their own form of trading between the uh major oil consuming
economies. Major oil consuming economies per se is it is nothing. It is not some kind of a what to say uh you need not somebody need not Google and search who is the major oil consuming economy. It is one China two India.
Mhm. So these economies they had by that time they had started their own bricks and the Pandora's box for the impending crisis that is taking place around the world started because of Lula's one statement when he handed over the banter8:30
to Modi during the uh summit brick summit recently held in Brazil8:37
where he openly stated that India will take the banter and uh CBDC uh central8:43
bank digital currency that bricks is willing to introduce for trading8:48
purposes. This is something that has created panic around the world especially in America.8:55
So now the game is not of global dominance but of economic global9:00
dominance. Leave the military dominance apart. Military dominance is that hegmonic military showing off your9:07
military power is long gone sir. Many think that America is a power to reckon with when it comes to military9:13
dominance. But tell me last time when America had invaded a country all alone and won a war.9:19
Yeah. Never. It can't. Mhm. As simple as it is. Even today as I'm9:25
speaking they are asking for you support to invade Iran. Right.9:31
You in the sense literal NATO support. Right. because Britain is not supporting9:36
them in allowing Chago's island as a base. Uh that's Dio Garcia as a9:42
operational base. There is something that is going on between America and that of United9:48
Kingdom. So they're asking for NATO support. Suddenly America has woken up to the reality that they can't fight a9:53
war in spite of having 200 liiput bases and major bases all around the globe from10:00
Guam to that of Fiji to that of not Fiji that is Hawaii to that of many other10:05
areas Qatar leave Westian region entirely Qatar Saudi Arabia10:12
even for the better Iraq for the better Bahin leave all these bases sir even Turkey10:19
apart from that also They have their bases all around the glo g g g g g g g g g g g g g g g g g g g g g g g g g g g g g g g g g g g g g g g globe including the our our neighboring Koko Island uh10:26
just around the corner in Bangladesh. But America is unable to because America10:32
one thing that that American public will not take lying down post the Vietnam era10:38
the body bag they have a body bag syndrome. Mhm. Lose popularity once the body bag start10:45
arriving in America. M now uh now before10:51
we uh talk about implications to the world right uh I want to kind of slowly uh look into India's evolving role and10:59
more so uh in my uh understanding right from non-alignment they are mostly11:04
moving into more of multi-alignment right um so is India trying to position11:10
themselves as as a potential third pole uh because you also brought in the the11:16
the the the the topic of economic dominance. So what do you think11:21
sir? Uh the hegmonic nature of China because11:27
China thought that they are replacement to America. They thought the middle kingdom syndrome that China suffers11:32
from. America suffers from aggressive inferiority complex.11:38
They are not a civilizational state. So they they try to if you read the do uh11:44
the thesis of Kushafur the famous geostrategic thinker who was11:50
who Hitler got influenced uh Hitler's most of his policies were11:55
influenced because of Kusha's thoughts which is called as Lebanon space12:02
every country as a living organism requires space to grow for it to grow it has to have resources for it to have12:08
resources it has to keep conquering other countries and promoting its culture, degrading the12:16
other count's culture while promoting its culture as the only superior culture.
This is something that America has been steadfastly doing around the globe in whatever thing they do. whether promoting their foods, whether promoting their uh dress code, whether promoting their way of lifestyle, everything like what Britain did uh during those ages
the same thing. But China for a change, they are a predatory power and as a12:45
state, Chinese as a state is more of a within the state I'm speaking about12:50
within the country. It is not a welfare state. It is it is more to that of a transactional state. amenities and12:57
require duty is just to keep your mouth shut and follow the communist party policies no questions asked. So that13:04
becomes a transactional state. Mhm. So considering the Chinese way of13:10
thinking which dates back to that of Mao or rather to say13:15
where Soviets failed miserably was they couldn't understand the changing realities of the world and that of their13:21
economic uh uh strength got weakened because of their un unwanted involvement13:27
in Afghanistan. But Chinese somehow have not involved themselves in13:33
any major conflict post 1979 and they have mastered the art of just by by threating by their uh bullying13:41
they can win over the other country. So considering this aspect um the rise of13:47
China and rise or rather to say the stagnation of America started from 200813:54
suddenly China rose. when China rose the the rise was very steep.13:59
Mhm. At the peak was around 2018 2019 when belton road initiative was at its peak14:05
and it was uh was the primary mover and shaker around the world.14:10
Again it started to face the same crisis that every other country faces major power faces.14:16
Fortunately or unfortunately they have come to their own creation14:22
that is co M they created they have come to that and14:28
what has happened now China is in a stagnation mode it's a larger economy14:35
production is there I don't disagree that some country has replaced their capability but it is not14:42
the same country that it was before 2020 we have to accept the changing realities in China also uh Cinping is not the same14:50
person that he was before 2020 20. Now he is more insecure as a leader. By the14:57
way he has done the purges in uh central communist central military congress15:02
almost is the it consists of seven members. He had eliminated almost five15:08
of them. Hayong is no more. Zanguza is no more.15:14
Fang is no more. General Fang who was also the defense minister and was basically a scientist in rocket force.15:22
Uh then comes uh losing Lee is no more in the central military commission.
No more literally both ways. Mo another person was there. He is no
more general mo. Only person who remains is Shenmin and that of uh uh our C. M so only two are remaining and it holds good for almost the entire defense establishment also out of 25 posts
including that of the heads of theater commands there are only uh seven people who are there 25 major important posts are vacant in China so there is a churn that is happening within China there is a great purge that has happened uh the report suggests that at least 30 lakh people have been purged mean 3 million which which amounts to 30 lakh 30 lakh people have been uh purged In the recent years from Communist Party which includes army officers, soldiers etc. 50 generals have been purged. So there is a joke which is going around that no one wants to get promoted as a general. Now
so this is the state of affairs in China. Now if you look at Russia, Russia
as a major power is its ability is dependent on its resources not on its
population. It it has lost its financial clout but still it has a uh technical edge of Russia is still there. It's relevant that is there. Um second comes the
Russian resources which the entire Europe as well as that of the many Asian countries are dependent upon including that of Japan. China is dependent on it. Japan is dependent on it. So does India. Now comes the case of classical case of India. Mhm. The rise of India or rather to say India as a uh power it is not based on the military approach that China or at one point of time America or even Soviet Russia has followed. It has followed a altogether a different trajectory which is based on equitable development but also based on when situation arises when it comes to uh military level confrontation. It is willing to see eye to eye. It is not taking a backseat. It it is uh very deafly playing its cards especially when it comes to diplomacy. It is both playing as a soft power and that of a hard power as and when required. If you see how India's military is reorienting itself, I mean the defense forces are reorienting itself. It is seeing itself as a blue
water navy as a oceanic power as a power that can control the Indian Ocean. Its submarine fleet is which is day today increasing which wants to modernize its defense forces not by just by purchasing equipment from abroad but by establishing a sound foundation within India where joint production is possible as partners. So that's what has happened during the recent deal with that of the Rafael with Emanuel Macron one and also when it comes to our investments or rather to say our way of approach towards the other powers other countries we have we
are not focusing only on our everybody talks about the free trade agreement with that of America. How many of us know that we are almost we have finalized the FDA with that of China. We have almost finalized with almost every South Asian South American country.
We are finalizing the deals and it has its own relevance and importance when it comes to lithium. Mhm. Lithium as a major source for making batteries is something that nobody can discount. Mhm. Has its own impact on how uh the next level of global domination is going to take place. Mhm. And now our our uh outlook towards Africa is not that of predatory nature like what China does. We try to invest, we try to innovate, we try to develop and that's why many African countries feel that India has rightfully taken the charge of uh being the leader of global south. China did not did not think itself as a leader of global south first. Let me tell you sir they wanted to be in the high table with that of the Anglo-Saxon block which I call it as G6 or G7 which whichever way you want to call it. It is gang of seven. We can't call it as group of seven. It is a gang which is hellbent on destroying the world or rather to say unscrupulously trying to uh rob other count's wealth. That's what they had done for almost thousand years and still they want to perpetuate it which is not possible. I had given you reasons for it. Now that we are talking about the uh leadership in the global south, I want to briefly uh mention right two recent uh incidents. One is your AI impact
summit right from the days of when uh open AI founder rate comes in and tells us that India is not in the race for the AI to the AI impact summit and also a very recent uh I would say uh happening where India joined the PAX silica you21:01
know u what do you think u uh are is is happening uh based on these recent21:08
events two things sir nobody can discuss around the uh or rather to say uh people can21:15
hate us, people can love us but nobody can ignore us. That is the present position of India around the globe.21:21
Mhm. One potential reality which nobody can21:27
ignore is India's population. Uh the population that is uh the which21:34
age group that is be below 35 age group is almost 60%.21:39
M and a population which is educated enough21:45
and uh technologydriven country21:51
mind you one thing that India has largely benefited from though many21:56
people don't give the credit which is due for then uh ruling party or the22:03
successive governments is we were able to keep our economy moving in spite of all troubles22:11
because we could sustain our food production. We could feed our people. Look what has22:18
happened to Pakistan. Pakistan also has similar population that like that of India.22:23
Bangladesh has similar population like that of India. Many African countries even though they are mineralrich22:28
compared to India and much smaller but their economic growth is not happening22:35
because they concentrated on farm production which is basically centered around uh commercial production that is22:42
cash crops not food crops.22:47
India fortunately still we concentrate on food crops22:53
day the day we started to think that we must keep feeding our people our primary22:58
aim was to feed our people once a country thinks that a person23:04
shall not go to sleep with an empty stomach I think if if uh my father used23:10
to tell me that uh during 1965 war there was a period when then prime minister23:17
Laladu Shastri had uh put a request before the Indian public at least to23:24
fast for one meal a day in a week. So there every day um he he23:33
would my father used to say he was a student in Svupati.23:38
So uh I think on Mondays or Saturdays something like that in the night they would skip the food.23:45
The Russian would go for the armed forces to fight the war.23:50
Today it is not the case. We are feeding 83 cr people. I think it is three times23:56
that of almost three times that of America. Two and a half time at least of that of America. 83 cr people have been fed by24:03
this government. free ratio, fortified wheat and that of rice,24:09
cereals etc. This has given the requisite wherewithal24:16
for this country to concentrate on other sectors.24:22
We have a flip side to our education system. The perfect thing is that we we24:29
were able to build IITs. We were able to build good good educational institutions. At the same time with good24:36
there also bad also comes in. There are dubious institutions which also propped24:41
up. Say for example the recent episode in a summit involving a deemed24:46
university right and by virtue of we investing heavily on24:53
our education sector whether we agree or not our parents had the foresight to invest on education.25:00
M we started to invest on education. We we put an incentive to educate our masses25:09
whether it is a government or whether it is a family. Everybody jumped in so that at least one25:14
child in the family is properly educated. Right?25:20
uh even in agriculture families around India at least one child they wanted to be in a government job or to go to for25:26
abroad or to get educated and become a you see the first generation almost all25:32
the innovators today in India the the greenhorn sectors in India uh everyone25:38
almost they are first generation graduates25:44
many of them come from rural background Mhm.25:49
So this happened from 19 say from 1980s onwards and post liberal liberalization25:56
period is something that has helped India's trajectory to move ahead. Mhm.26:03
Before that we had we had gone for IMF bailout three times. Post liberalization we have not gone for26:10
a single bailout in spite of once being called as 2011 I think 2011 12 we were called as fragile26:17
fry economies. Correct. And in spite of all inadequacies,26:24
we had the wherewithal, capability and leadership26:29
but and that of steadfastness to implement such an certain26:34
innovationdriven policies say UPA it was a gamecher.26:42
True. I think if if I am right you would be the best judge of it. India had leaprog26:50
that is 20 years ahead of that of Europe and that of America. America correct26:55
you don't see Indians seldom use cards nowadays and cash and27:02
neither cash nor card correct America still lives on cards.27:10
Mhm. Whereas India doesn't live on cards. That's one best thing to happen. And27:17
second thing that has happened is that the innovation index in India has grown drastically in the last 11 to 12 years.27:28
The incentivization of innovation and that of uh techdriven industries has27:35
tripled if if not quadrupled. Mhm. Even this budget there was an27:40
allocation of 10,000 crores
for a m fourth important thing is that whether the world accepts or not the reality is India is the market. Mhm. You ignore India at your own peril. And the difference between the uh golden cage parrot of those days when British entered India and today is that today India is more of a unified state in the in in a practical sense. Of course we do have our uh what to say shortcomings. We do have our differences. We do have our internal uh uh fragmented uh thinking is there within this country on many counts cast uh region etc etc but still as a uh country we are much unified than what we were in say in 17th or 18th century when British entered India. Now our fault lines are minimal in nature. Mhm. Our fundamentals are much stronger. our
economic fundamentals. What what is the primary difference is that when British entered India, we didn't have a single currency. Today, India has a single currency. Mhm. wherever we go. I'll give you one classic uh uh case or rather to say because in Andhra Pradesh there there goes a story why we uh when when some uh purohit comes to the house for doing whatever holy thing whether it is for good or bad when he comes to the house we would pay him 1,16 or 1,16 rupees we will pay him. The reason being uh the NISAM's territory and the British territory at different conversion rates, right? So 16 rupees extra had to be paid, right? Because the prohit used to come from that of the Andra region means to region to do the rituals. So they had to be paid 16 rupees for conversion rate. But today that is not the case. A rupee is equal to 100 pisa all over India. And another reason why India's uh fundamentals have become strong is whether we agree or not 99% of this country believes in a credible democracy. Mhm. And our democracy is a potent democracy compared to any other democracy of the world. M with clearly laid down red lines for all the branches whether it comes to executive or to that that of legislative or to that of judiciary. We have a clearly laid down red lines. One shall not cross beyond this limit. Unlike you see what is happening in America, right? No prime minister would have a g to go and criticize the judges who had given a verdict. in India. Mhm. And as a matter of fact, what Trump is doing is something that is unthinkable to happen in India. You won't do that. And America prides itself calling itself as a great democracy. Mhm.
That's a paradox. So considering all these factors and the last nail in the coffin was the our ability to lend a helping hand whenever there was a global level crisis. Time and time again we had exhibited in a smaller scale but the large scale we exhibited this was during the co as a dependable major power instead of bargaining for giving for medicines we did not bargain for basis or resources right just like that we gave on humanitarian grounds that is the soft power projection of India not only just this bhanatam kuchupuri or rather to say Indian kusain the not these are not only the soft power the major soft power is to lend a helping hand when a country requires in a calamity which this country is ready and rise of India as a arms exporting economy now say for example in Armenia we are we are giving them Taka rockets even the French French president he had shown intent to get Paka rocket systems. Uh Akash Astra. So the rise of Indian defense industry is also see sir any country has to show its hard power and soft power. Your hard power has to be comate with that of your soft power. No country can call itself as a power unless it can have it. It is the it is two sides of the same coin. Now India is able to show that and we are we are not we have decoupled ourself in many conflict zone conflict bone regions if given a choice to choose between Israel and Palestine we don't take sides if given a choice choose between Saudi Arabia and Iran we don't take sides except for given a choice between Pakistan and some other country with all other countries we don't take sides so we decoupled our foreign policy approach, multi-level engagement as you say. Okay sir. Um so thank you uh Dr. Naranjan for the deep dive and viewers
until the next time stay informed and engaged. Uh namaste J. Namaste.
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