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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EYf8zFzjzqc
Economy Falls, Population Shrinks: China’s Rise Is Over, History’s Garbage Time Has Begun : 13 August 2026 #chinaobserver
Throughout history, few governments have openly declared their own decline. Most quietly enter a period of decline, where the outcome is already reflected in data and people’s real experiences, while the system continues to operate and moves toward an inevitable end. In sports, the final minutes of a one-sided game are called “garbage time” — the result is decided, key players are removed, and substitutes simply finish the game. Applied to political and economic systems, it becomes “history’s garbage time.” : 406 Comments @uckBayNguyen China attracts more ridicule than respect. It's called China fatigue @meresmear Their "rise" was them standing on their own trash and corpses.
@quinby123 End the CCP. Start a new China.
@ll_spud The Great Fall of China
@tonythai5991 CCP is expired.
@rockys7726 how much longer can the Chinese people endure before there is an overthrow?
@fatihgunce6688 The end of 40 years of growth has been reached.
@donaldkasper8346 Youth unemployment sounds like it is 60%.
@zaytovun America is not far behind...
@alexandercecil9766 Socialism is akin to digging away at your own foundations to build yourself a castle.
@Jeff-ej4wp Garbage time for a country built on lying, cheating, stealing whose cheap products are of the lowest quality, built by people with zero morals or ethics and ruled by a greedy evil tyrannical dictator. What took so long?
@fortheloveofgod61Don't buy an EV from China!
@jasonariola6363 Communist China sucks Transcript
Today's communist China,
0:31
especially under Xiinping's leadership,
0:33
has not only entered the stage, but
0:35
appears to be accelerating towards it,
0:37
while still telling the world and its
0:39
own people that the future remains
0:41
bright. This is not based on sensational
0:43
claims or conspiracy theories. It is an
0:46
assessment based on economic trends,
0:48
historical patterns, power structures,
0:50
demographic realities, and the daily
0:52
challenges faced by ordinary Chinese
0:54
people. The world once witnessed China's
0:57
rise with both admiration and concern.
1:00
Factories ran day and night. Cities rose
1:02
from farmland, high-speed rail across
1:04
the country, and infrastructure reshaped
1:07
global supply chains. The CCP promised
1:10
the Chinese dream. national revival,
1:12
middle class prosperity, technological
1:14
leadership, and a responsible global
1:17
role. This narrative resonated from the
1:20
2000s to the early 2010s.
1:23
Today, that dream has changed. Growth
1:25
has slowed sharply and youth
1:26
unemployment remains between 15% and
1:29
20%. Real estate, once accounting for
1:31
about 30% of GDP, has become a major
1:34
burden on the economy. Developers have
1:37
defaulted, projects have stalled, and
1:39
home buyers confidence has disappeared.
1:42
Local governments dependent on land
1:44
sales and off-budget borrowing now face
1:46
hidden debt estimated at tens of
1:48
trillions of yen. Birth rates have
1:50
fallen to historic lows, worsening
1:52
demographic pressure. The outflow of
1:54
capital, talent, and some people within
1:57
political circles reflect growing doubt
1:59
about the sustainability of this path. A
2:02
major threshold has been crossed. The
2:04
feedback mechanism that once allowed the
2:06
system to adjust itself have been
2:09
severely weakened. Political loyalty has
2:11
taken priority over professional
2:14
expertise. Information reported upward
2:16
is often filtered and softened and rigid
2:19
ideology has replaced the practical
2:21
approach of the early reform era. These
2:24
are key features often associated with
2:26
history's garbage time. The current
2:28
leadership style has also accelerated
2:30
this process. The ruling elite appears
2:33
to remain confident that it can maintain
2:35
control and that victory is inevitable.
2:37
Meaningful reform has become
2:39
increasingly difficult, not because
2:41
solutions are unavailable, but because
2:43
vested interest and concentrated power
2:46
discourage attempts to change course.
2:48
When a government becomes the main
2:50
allocator of capital through industrial
2:52
subsidies, advantages for state-owned
2:54
enterprises, politically directed
2:57
lending, and administrative controls,
2:59
resources tend to flow towards
3:01
politically favored areas rather than
3:03
consumer demand and market needs. This
3:05
creates inefficient investment, asset
3:08
bubbles, and eventually large amounts of
3:10
bad debt and wasted resources. A system
3:13
may temporarily hide these problems
3:15
through credit expansion, exports,
3:17
nationalist messaging, and stronger
3:19
political control. But economic
3:20
realities eventually emerge. This
3:22
pattern can be seen in modern China.
3:25
Decades of state-led infrastructure
3:27
investment created high-speed rail
3:29
networks, airports, new urban areas, and
3:32
an manufacturing base that became
3:34
central to global supply chains. These
3:36
achievements are visible, but many
3:38
projects were funded by large amounts of
3:40
debt and driven by political goals and
3:42
GDP targets rather than market demand
3:44
and cost effectiveness. The result has
3:47
been abandoned, ghost cities,
3:49
inefficient large-scale projects, and
3:51
long-term industrial overcapacity. When
3:53
diminishing marginal returns appear,
3:55
Beijing's response has been to increase
3:58
intervention, expanding subsidies for
4:00
strategic industries, pushing
4:02
technological upgrades, promoting
4:04
initiatives such as Made in China 2025,
and tightening control over private
4:09
companies that become too independent or
4:11
too successful. This creates a
4:13
self-reinforcing cycle. As productivity
4:16
growth slows, more resources are taken
4:18
from private businesses to support
4:20
political stability, elite networks, and
4:23
highly visible but inefficient projects.
4:26
The more pressure increases, the weaker
4:28
private investment and innovation
4:30
become. Young people facing intense
4:32
educational competition are finding
4:34
fewer opportunities for upward mobility.
4:37
Some choose to lie flat while others
4:39
leave the country. Consumer confidence
4:41
has weakened, deflationary pressure has
4:44
increased, and domestic demand remains
4:46
weak. Local governments after losing
4:48
land sale revenue and facing growing
4:50
financial pressure. Yet, the Communist
4:52
Party's response has been to tighten
4:54
control, expand surveillance, and
4:56
increase ideological campaigns rather
4:58
than pursue deeper market reforms. Each
5:00
cycle pushes the system further into the
5:02
same trap. Politically, the CCP presents
5:05
one party rule as a continuation of
5:08
China's thousands of years of imperial
5:10
tradition. But invoking Confucian ideas,
5:13
it encourages people to believe that the
5:16
CCP and its leaders have the same
5:18
legitimacy as ancient emperors to rule
5:21
the people and even the authority to
5:23
decide how they live and think. In
5:26
reality, Marxist communism, which the
5:28
CCP regard as its foundation, is
5:31
completely opposed to digital confusion
5:33
thought. Ancient Chinese emperors gained
5:36
public support by following the mandate
5:39
of heaven and caring for the people.
5:41
They view the people as water and
5:43
themselves as boats, believing that
5:45
water can carry a boat, but it can also
5:47
overturn it. This idea reflects
5:50
confusion values. In confusion thought,
5:53
the family is the foundation of society
5:55
and morality.
5:56
Confucianism views fo piety and respect
6:00
for elders as the beginning of virtue
6:03
with the family as the basis of personal
6:05
character, social order, and the state.
6:08
Communist theory takes the opposite
6:10
view. It puts the state before the
6:12
family, promotes communal relationships,
6:14
and seeks to eliminate private property
6:16
while disrupting traditional family and
6:19
moral values. For years, the
6:21
international community has
6:22
misunderstood the CCP because it
6:24
presents itself as part of Chinese
6:26
culture while actually distorting it. It
6:28
uses a name of Chinese civilization
6:30
while undermining it. A key example is
6:33
the Confucious Institute, which promotes
6:35
themselves as spreading confusion
6:37
thought, but according to critics, they
6:39
damage understanding of confusion values
6:42
and traditional Chinese culture. At the
6:44
end of the Ming andQing dynasties, China
6:47
experienced highly concentrated power
6:49
followed by bureaucratic stagnation,
6:51
financial decline, factional struggles,
6:54
and excessive military expansion
6:55
eventually leading to their collapse.
6:58
Many believe these patterns resemble the
7:00
challenges facing the current CCP
7:02
system. The difference is that past
7:04
Chinese dynasties collapsed after rulers
7:06
violated confusion principles leading to
7:09
corruption, social decline, and the loss
7:11
of the mandate of heaven. Famine,
7:14
uprising, and external pressure were
7:16
only the final triggers. Internal decay
7:19
had already developed over many years.
7:21
The CCP is different because it was
7:23
founded with a goal of dismantling
7:25
China's traditional social and moral
7:27
systems. Put simply, today's situation
7:29
is moving closer to the CCP's original
7:32
direction. Today, signs seen during the
7:34
decline of past dynasties appear to be
7:36
emerging again in China. Elites are
7:39
seeking alternatives or leaving the
country. Intellectuals are losing
7:43
confidence, and ordinary people are
7:44
responding through withdrawal or passive
7:46
resistance. More top student and skilled
7:49
workers are turning to Western
7:51
democracies in other parts of Asia for
7:53
education, careers, and security.
7:56
Despite strict control, capital
7:58
continues to leave through various
8:00
channels, even within the system.
8:02
Cynicism and risk avoidance are growing.
8:05
The fragile balance that supported the
8:07
CCP for decades, exchanging material
8:10
improvements for political acceptance
8:12
has weakened due to the economic damage
8:14
from prolonged zeroco policies,
8:17
unpredictable regulatory crackdowns, and
8:19
growing pressure among younger
8:20
generations.
8:22
Xiinping's anti-corruption campaign
8:24
initially gained public support by
8:26
targeting senior officials known as
8:28
tigers. Over time, however, it became a
8:31
tool for removing rivals, placing allies
8:33
in key positions, and pressuring
8:35
officials. While it may have reduced
8:37
some local corruption, it also
8:39
discouraged initiative and creativity.
8:41
Today, the safest strategies for
8:43
officials is to show loyalty, leaving
8:45
little room for innovation or
8:47
risk-taking. Economically, the
8:49
leadership has promoted technological
8:51
self-reliance, support for national
8:53
champions, and the politically powerful
8:55
but vaguely defined idea of common
8:57
prosperity. The result have come at a
9:00
high cost. Large subsidies in
9:02
semiconductors, electric vehicles, and
9:05
renewable energy have created major
9:07
production capacity, but also brought
9:09
inefficiency and financial burdens.
9:11
Western technology restrictions have
9:12
further exposed weaknesses in these
9:14
industries, forcing China onto a more
9:17
costly path. The three red lines policy
9:19
was introduced to reduce financial risk
9:21
by limiting real estate debt. Instead,
9:24
it triggered a liquidity crisis,
9:26
destroying trillions of yen in household
9:28
wealth and weakening local government
9:30
finances. The effect continues today.
9:32
Internationally, the policy known as
9:34
wolf warrior [music] diplomacy has faced
9:36
backlash. It has accelerated western
9:38
effort to reduce supply chain dependence
9:40
on China, damaged China's image among
9:43
developing countries and [music]
9:44
contributed to balancing groups such as
9:46
the Quad and AUK US. The east rising and
9:51
west declining narrative is increasingly
9:53
disconnected from reality. The United
9:55
States remains ahead of technology.
9:57
Europe has become more cautious about
9:59
supply chain dependence and Vietnam,
10:01
India, Mexico and Southeast Asia are
10:04
emerging as alternative manufacturing
10:06
and investment destinations. From a
10:08
democratic perspective, the situation is
10:11
even more serious. The legacy of the one
10:14
child policy is rapidly reversing
10:16
China's population structure. A
10:18
shrinking workforce will soon have to
10:20
support a growing retire population,
10:22
putting heavy pressure on pensions,
10:24
healthcare, and families. Recent efforts
10:26
to encourage child birth have had
10:28
limited results. High living cost,
10:30
intense competition, and pressure under
10:32
authoritarian rule have left many young
10:34
people unresponsive to these policies.
10:36
This demographic challenge continues to
10:38
restrict the government's choices at
10:40
home and abroad. Before history's
10:42
garbage time arrives, insiders often
10:44
recognize the situation earlier than the
10:46
public. Red artistocrats, private
10:49
business owners, professionals, and some
10:51
political and military figures are all
10:53
reducing their risks through similar
10:54
methods, buying property overseas,
10:56
sending children abroad, obtaining
10:58
second passports, and moving assets out
11:00
of the country. When a large part of the
11:02
elite quietly separates its future from
11:04
the regime, it becomes a clear sign of a
legitimacy crisis. For migrant workers,
11:09
industrial workers, small business
11:11
owners, and other ordinary workers who
11:13
support society, the costs are
11:15
immediate. falling wages, unstable jobs,
11:17
rising living costs, and declining
11:19
property values. For young people,
11:21
starting a family has become
11:22
increasingly difficult, and the belief
11:24
in upward mobility has been replaced by
11:27
insecurity. Phenomena such as lying flat
11:30
are no longer viewed simply as laziness,
11:32
but as a form of withdrawal from a
11:34
system that demands loyalty and effort
11:37
while offering fewer rewards. Some argue
11:40
that history's garbage time may last for
11:42
a long period. Real world examples show
11:44
that decline can be slow and painful.
11:47
North Korean has shown how an
11:49
authoritarian system can continue for
11:51
generations through strict control and
11:53
isolation. The former Soviet Union also
11:56
experienced years of stagnation under
11:59
Brev and his successors before its
12:01
eventual collapse. Compared with many
12:03
declining regimes in history, China has
12:06
greater economic resources, surveillance
12:08
capabilities, nationalist mobilization
12:10
power, and foreign exchange reserves.
12:13
This means a long period of control
12:15
decline with repeated crisis and
12:17
temporary recoveries remains possible.
12:19
Even so, every additional year the CCP
12:22
remains on this path brings greater cost
12:24
for Chinese society and global
12:26
businesses. These include wasted or lost
12:29
talent, environmental damage that may be
12:32
difficult to reverse, and the growing
12:34
risk of using external conflict to
12:36
divert attention from internal problems.
12:39
This debt is not only financial, but
12:41
also demographic, social, and moral, and
12:44
it continues to grow. A more optimistic
12:47
view argues that the CCP differs from
12:49
totalan systems such as North Korea and
12:52
the Soviet Union. Supporters of this
12:54
view believe the CCP's economic rise and
12:56
political foundation came from the
12:58
international community's
12:59
misunderstanding of the regime. Since
13:01
taking power, the CCP has claimed to
13:04
represent China and the Chinese people
13:06
while reshaping Chinese culture through
13:08
communist ideology. They argue this has
13:11
been its most damaging deception,
13:13
misleading the world for nearly a
13:15
century. In recent years, this narrative
13:17
has increasingly collapsed. More
13:19
government officials and ordinary people
13:21
are gradually recognizing that the CCP
13:23
is not the same as China and that the
13:24
CCP government does not represent the
13:26
Chinese people. Although this appears to
13:28
be a political shift, it strikes as one
13:31
of the regime's king foundations. US
13:33
President Donald Trump delivered a
13:35
historic speech at Mount Rushmore on
13:38
July 3rd, describing communism as a
13:40
deadly threat to national survival. He
13:43
said communism was the greatest threat
13:45
the United States had faced since its
13:47
founding, greater than World War I,
13:49
World War II, the attack on Pearl
13:52
Harbor, and even the September 11
13:54
terrorist attacks. Observers noted that
13:56
this was not Trump's first warning about
13:58
communism, but it was his strongest
14:00
warning so far. Coming during the 250th
14:03
anniversary of the founding of the
14:05
United States, the speech sent at least
14:08
three messages. First, it suggests that
14:10
many political issues may increasingly
14:13
be viewed through the broader framework
14:15
of opposition to communism. Second, it
suggests that future competition between
14:19
the United States and communist
14:21
governments may place greater focus on
14:24
ideology. Third, it revisited three
14:27
fundamental questions. In recent years,
14:29
American society has debated a basic
14:32
question. What is America? Different
14:34
political groups have offered different
14:36
answers. Some emphasized the
14:38
Constitution as the foundation of
14:40
America. Others described it as a nation
14:43
of immigrants, a system of democratic
14:46
processes, or a society built on values
14:48
such as equality, diversity, and
14:50
inclusion. Trump offered another answer.
14:52
In his view, America is first a free
14:55
republic founded in 1776.
14:59
Its identity, he argues, comes not from
15:01
later ideas, but from the founding
15:03
principles of natural rights, limited
15:06
government and constitution, religious
15:08
freedom, private property, local
15:10
governance, and popular sovereignty.
15:13
Under this view, communism is dangerous
15:16
not only because it comes from abroad,
15:18
but because it is seen as rejecting
15:20
these founding principles. Therefore,
15:22
when Trump called communism the enemy of
15:25
July 4th, 1776,
15:28
he was referring to an ideological enemy
15:30
rather than a geographic one. And who
15:33
that enemy is, many believe, is already
15:35
clear. A saying has become popular among
15:38
some Chinese elites. History has shown
15:40
that anyone who becomes America's true
15:42
enemy is not far from collapse. The idea
15:45
of garbage time for communist China has
15:48
also sparked discussion among political
15:50
and economic figures. The Facebook
15:52
account teacher son of politics and
15:54
economics argued that the end of garbage
15:57
time would inevitably bring famine, war,
15:59
and violent conflict. The account
16:01
suggested that Chinese people should
16:03
consider moving to southeastern coastal
16:05
areas or even border regions in southern
16:08
China and leaving the country. But some
16:10
analysts argue that the key issue is not
16:12
the instability that may follow garbage
16:14
time, but how this period is managed.
16:17
They argue that Chinese people are
16:18
already living through a period of
16:20
extreme uncertainty. They believe the
16:22
end of garbage time would bring freedom
16:24
and relief not only for Chinese people
16:26
but for humanity as a whole.
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