https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=REV1xzLbB8o The Indian Economy: Myths vs. Reality • Prof. R. Vaidyanathan Streamed live 104 minutes ago #IndianEconomy #IndiaGrowthStory #Economics Is India’s economy accurately represented by conventional statistics and international narratives—or is a large part of the real story being overlooked? Prof. R. Vaidyanathan examines the myths, realities and contradictions shaping our understanding of the Indian economy. The discussion explores: • The difference between headline economic indicators and lived reality • India’s vast informal and household-driven economy • The role of small businesses and family enterprises • Savings, consumption, employment and entrepreneurship • Economic growth, inequality and wealth creation • How global institutions and commentators perceive India • The strengths and vulnerabilities hidden behind the numbers Does the conventional economic framework adequately explain India—or does the country require an entirely different lens? @గడియారం 17 minutes ago Being a patriotic indian feeling so pride and happy for the facts about India sir! Transcropt Today we will take up a topic of uh something different than the global picture and other thing. What is the position of the Indian economy and various types of popular myths are there about the economy? We'll try to you know deal with them. What actually constitute our economy and how it is functioning or how it is growing. First and foremost is 1:431 minute, 43 secondssome nitwitter suggested and I'm sure Trump picked it up and told this dead economy will be met with like that and 1:521 minute, 52 secondsour local nitweight Rahul Gandhi also picked it up and told our economy is dead which is you know very sad because 2:022 minutes, 2 secondswhatever said and done in the past also the opposition never you know sort of made such a sweeping type of statements 2:112 minutes, 11 secondswhich he is now increasingly making that old jury and this jury and that jury. 2:172 minutes, 17 secondsAnyhow the dead economy statement was really in not in not only from the 2:262 minutes, 26 secondsgoodest badest point of view but factually it was totally wrong actually very interestingly 2:342 minutes, 34 secondsIndia is one of the fastest growing in the world economy. Not only that last 2:412 minutes, 41 secondsyear not I am not telling this IMF told this Indian growth rate contributed 2:482 minutes, 48 secondssomething like 15% for the world grow growth rate this is something very interesting I think I might have 2:562 minutes, 56 secondsmentioned it long time before India and China according to Angus Madison the famous economist are reemerging 3:043 minutes, 4 secondseconomist they are not emerging economies So what was suggested that 3:123 minutes, 12 secondstime was uh that significant amount of global growth rate is contributed by the 3:193 minutes, 19 secondsIndian economy. Indian economy is growing you know give or take above 6% 6.5%. 3:283 minutes, 28 secondsAnd uh and the global major economies are all struggling with 1.5 2% 2.5% and 3:363 minutes, 36 secondsother things. Not only that on uh purchasing power basis our economy is
reaching 30 trillion and on uh nominal basis itself we are much above the UK, 3:513 minutes, 51 secondsFrance and other countries. So let's look at what we have achieved actually which is I'm not if I say something 4:004 minutespeople are not going to oh this professor will be and somebody will say is si somebody will say is cast all type 4:084 minutes, 8 secondsof things will be there but uh what IMF has projected let us analyzed and then 4:164 minutes, 16 secondspresented let's have a quick look at that first slide 4:234 minutes, 23 secondsIf you take the last 10 years of uh GDP growth, you can see there 10 years I 4:314 minutes, 31 secondshave this is what the IMF has presented for real GDP in 2025 compared to what was there in 2015 inflation adjusted. 4:424 minutes, 42 secondsThat's why it's called real GDP. You see India 2015 was 2 trillion. Now it's 4.3 4:504 minutes, 50 secondstrillion. Something like 105% change has taken place. This is something phenomenal. 4:584 minutes, 58 secondsYes, Professor Arvi. I'm going to give full screen to the graphic. You will not be visible on the screen, but you people can hear your voice. 5:085 minutes, 8 secondsNo problem. 5:105 minutes, 10 secondsYeah. Here we go. You are you are doing something different than the Sachin era. Yes, sir. Go ahead sir. 5:195 minutes, 19 secondsYeah. Yeah. This is okay. You can see there the growth rate for 10 years between 15 and 25. For US it is 66%. 5:295 minutes, 29 secondsChina 76%. 5:325 minutes, 32 secondsIndia 105%. Kindly note it. And uh I am not suggesting it. I am only telling the 5:405 minutes, 40 secondsdata collected from IMF. They say that India has stunned the world in the last 10 years. That's a word I am not using 5:485 minutes, 48 secondsit. It has been used by the international monetary fund. You can see Spain is 50%, Australia 58%. All of them 5:575 minutes, 57 secondsare different different but India is above 100%. the phenomenal it's 6:036 minutes, 3 secondsliterally doubling between uh 2015 and 2025 and doubling implies some of them 6:126 minutes, 12 secondssome of the people who are statistically inclined uh 72 is the rule of thumb if 6:196 minutes, 19 secondsyou want to double your growth rate in uh 10 years 7.2% 2% annual average you 6:276 minutes, 27 secondsshould be growing. The rule of 72 or thumb rule of 72 is very popular. If you are growing at 10% then you will be 6:366 minutes, 36 secondsdoubling it in 7.2 years. Anyhow this is the actual picture. So it's not a dead economy. Let's be very clear about it. 6:466 minutes, 46 secondsIt's a very thriving and living and growing economy. Next one. 6:546 minutes, 54 secondsYeah, you can see here what is the myth about our economy is because people who 7:027 minutes, 2 secondsread economic times and mint and other things on a continuous basis business standard they will think corporate is 7:097 minutes, 9 secondsthe major factor in our economy corporate I mean company sector and within that of course Amani Alani and 7:177 minutes, 17 secondsall a more popular that will be the banner line type of a And of course nowadays last couple of
days at least it is Tatas who are occupying the primary space in terms of two groups but actual position is if you 7:357 minutes, 35 secondstake our net domestic product agriculture constitute 17%. These are 7:417 minutes, 41 secondsapproximate plus minus that is how that the line is shown as approximate and government constitute around 19%. 7:537 minutes, 53 secondsPrivate corporate all that which we are making very much noise all the companies put together is 14%. 8:028 minutes, 2 secondsNoncorporate is 50%. that is partnership and properatorship forms along with 8:108 minutes, 10 secondsother type of LLP and other thing. So this is the picture actually half of our economy is partnership and 8:198 minutes, 19 secondsproperatorship economy about which not much is written or not much is talked about because they are all considered as unorganized. 8:298 minutes, 29 secondsUnorganized in India mean you are doici clad and you smoke bees or you know chew tobacco and other. Organized means you 8:388 minutes, 38 secondsare suited, booted and you have a tie matching red color with a blue suit and 8:458 minutes, 45 secondsif at all you smoke you smoke cigar or cigarette that is organized sector and organized of course tie is very 8:548 minutes, 54 secondsimportant because it's very important to note in India if you want to tell a lie you should always have a tie without 9:019 minutes, 1 secondthat you know your lie will not be going any place that's why you can See most of 9:089 minutes, 8 secondsthe lawyers, doctors and chartered accountant always will have a tie. This 9:149 minutes, 14 secondsis very very important thing is laughing is having the waste coat like Neroian 9:209 minutes, 20 secondswaste coat. So there is no question of but if you take the US sorry let's come to that slide let me finish that. 9:329 minutes, 32 secondsIf you compare it with US corporate share in US is something like 70%. 9:399 minutes, 39 secondsAnd you know then government then various other thing and the so-called unorganized will be something like 6%. 9:489 minutes, 48 secondsThat's why they are called residual sector there because in India the kirana shops are all there millions of them and 9:579 minutes, 57 secondsthey are called mom and pop stores but very very few nowadays. Most of them have been converted into blue uniform 10:0510 minutes, 5 secondsand then standing in Walmart or one of those bigger malls in the US. So there 10:1410 minutes, 14 secondsbecause they are five to 6% they are called residual where in US and of course all our 10:2110 minutes, 21 secondseconomist experts are all US trained and US used and most of our bureaucrats 10:2910 minutes, 29 secondspolitician defense people their children are all studying in US or UK. So what is happening in India also it is called 10:3810 minutes, 38 secondsresidual. It's a peculiar country where 50% of the GDP is called residual. Can 10:4510 minutes, 45 secondsyou beat that nowhere else in the world you know this will be acceptable but we have accepted it as a and you know and 10:5410 minutes, 54 secondsresidual not only residual it is also laughed at it is called unorganized and unorganized is used in a sense of being 11:0111 minutes, 1 seconddisorganized and so it has to be organized. It has to become organized and for which efforts have to be taken.
This is the sort of a you know snide or and the word unorganized is itself is to 11:1811 minutes, 18 secondsbe questioned. Actually if you ask me the word non-corporate will be better. 11:2311 minutes, 23 secondsI'll tell you an example simple a vegetable vendor she comes near my home morning in that TVS50 or whatever that 11:3211 minutes, 32 secondsuh she carries one truckload of vegetables in that I do not know she manages she comes set the shop around 11:4211 minutes, 42 seconds7:00 and then she works till evening 6:00 and in between she goes for lunch 11:4911 minutes, 49 secondsor tea or something somebody and you know what She knows her customers, she knows her suppliers, she knows all the 11:5911 minutes, 59 secondsuh local politics, everything. And she is always available 24 by 7 except you 12:0712 minutes, 7 secondsknow one or two days like uh some festival she goes off for her hometown 12:1412 minutes, 14 secondsand you know what in our statistical system she is called unorganized. 12:1912 minutes, 19 secondsI am very puzzled actually that why she should she is much better organized than a multinational company if you ask me. 12:2712 minutes, 27 secondsShe knows all the she's the finance director. She is the HR in charge. She is also marketing in charge. She runs 12:3612 minutes, 36 secondsher show very well. Similarly, next there is a small hotel which is you know makes idli dosa in the morning till 12:4412 minutes, 44 secondsevening and throughout the year. same consistency he is giving dosas and idlies and people come and eat and he is 12:5212 minutes, 52 secondsalso called unorganized and uh you know I was I am a statistic student I was 13:0013 minutesgoing through the national statistical literature you know one thing after a couple of pages government is called 13:0813 minutes, 8 secondsorganized this is something shocking to me government is the most disorganized entity in this in our country And these 13:1713 minutes, 17 secondspeople are all more organized than so the terminology is very very important. 13:2313 minutes, 23 secondsI call it terminological terrorism. You just you know use a terminology and 13:2913 minutes, 29 secondsbrush him aside. That is what is the so we should be very clear that half of our economy is consisting of these people. 13:4013 minutes, 40 secondsNext one sir. 13:4313 minutes, 43 secondsYeah, most of these are majority activity is considered to be its 13:5213 minutes, 52 secondsinformation technology and related services or what we call software that is considered as a major component 14:0014 minutesand that what occupies the space the vros and the infos and you know everything is around that but actually 14:0814 minutes, 8 secondstheir share is 5 to 6% only not more than that the major fastest 14:1614 minutes, 16 secondsgrowing activities are construction, wholesale and retail trade, transport, 14:2314 minutes, 23 secondshotels and restaurant, real estate and ownership of dwellings and other services, professional services, 14:3014 minutes, 30 secondsdoctors, lawyers, priests also included in them. All other services plumber, fitter, carpenter there are 63 type of 14:3814 minutes, 38 secondsservices all of them are included and in each of them the non-corporate actually dominates 14:4614 minutes, 46 secondsthere are more than 70%. In some cases like other than railway transport they 14:5314 minutes, 53 secondsare 90%. In construction in India, we allocate construction under construction 15:0015 minutesunder service sector because it is much more labor oriented. Even though many more of these uh uh machines have come 15:1015 minutes, 10 secondsinto the construction but it is mainly in the organized big construction companies and other a lot of these you 15:1915 minutes, 19 secondsknow single you know house construction contractors they all use labor only. 15:2415 minutes, 24 secondsThat is why we have put it there under services. So these all these
non-corporate in each of them constitute 70 to 80%. In hotels and restaurant it 15:3715 minutes, 37 secondsis much more actually. Next one sir and uh government and corporate 15:4615 minutes, 46 secondsemployment this is another major thing every time government government employees constitute and corporate 15:5415 minutes, 54 secondsemployees put together constitute 12 to 15%. Government employment alone will be around 78%. 16:0216 minutes, 2 secondsBut every time we talk more and more about but the 78% fellows make in 16:1016 minutes, 10 secondsbribery much more than what is possible that is a separate issue and 85% are 16:1816 minutes, 18 secondsself-employed or what are called contract labor. Even in bigger companies today even in manufacturing companies 16:2616 minutes, 26 secondscontract labor share is increasing. They are not keeping them on their roles actually they are keeping them using the 16:3416 minutes, 34 secondscontractors in US if you look at government and corporate will be 90 to 92%. 16:4216 minutes, 42 secondsSelf-employed is relatively lesser 6 to 8%. But uh you know you will be surprised I will tell you I don't want 16:5016 minutes, 50 secondsto tell the name. I was traveling with one uh economic advisor to the government of India. This was in the 16:5716 minutes, 57 secondslate later part of last century and he is you know big- time migrant what I 17:0517 minutes, 5 secondscall economist he comes here and he is from one of those top-notch schools in US. So we were talking and when I I 17:1417 minutes, 14 secondsmentioned you know self-employed and other 80% he was surprised is it really true professor he was asking me I told 17:2217 minutes, 22 secondsyou should know better you are the one who is you know economic advisor to the government so you should know much 17:3017 minutes, 30 secondsbetter about this he was not he somehow thought it is very similar to us anyhow that is how we have lot of these 17:3817 minutes, 38 secondsimported fellows whose knowledge is very abysmally low and who drag us to the 17:4617 minutes, 46 secondsbottom of the picture. Next one and other is share market. This is 17:5317 minutes, 53 secondsanother thing. Every day banner line is shares are going down, shares are going up as if that is going to be the 18:0118 minutes, 1 seconddecisive one. In US for instance, share market is a barometer of their economy. 18:0718 minutes, 7 secondsBut not in India. All the share market companies you take put together then 18:1418 minutes, 14 secondstheir share in the end net domestic product is around 8 to 12%. 18:2018 minutes, 20 secondsSo much noise is made this is what I always call we have a uncanny ability to 18:2718 minutes, 27 secondsfocus on immaterial and inconsequential and then go on talking about that as if 18:3418 minutes, 34 secondsthat is the final thing. So if share markets come down or go up, it's 18:4118 minutes, 41 secondsimportant for the companies which are listed in the market on that there is no doubt but uh it is not for the national economy. 18:5118 minutes, 51 seconds8,000 shares are supposed to be listed and uh in '90s you pay listing fee you get listed. 18:5918 minutes, 59 secondsThat's all. Lot of companies came. one company I remember Tala Dalal he's no 19:0519 minutes, 5 secondsmore and our friend this cricketer very they all they formed a they were telling 19:1419 minutes, 14 secondsabout a company to sell the dues collected from uh the leaves during the 19:2119 minutes, 21 secondswinter and exporting it it's a fresh type of a thing and so many people went and uh booked also in the IPO and that 19:3219 minutes, 32 secondscompany disappeared. So there is a lot of these type of companies came and I call them as billion abimman news in 19:4019 minutes, 40 secondsIndian shady so many people enter the market they do not know how to come out of it I am sure
many of you would have heard about you know not like my student they asked me is he's a new film actor who has come in 19:5619 minutes, 56 secondsthe Bollywood I told no no no and another girl interfered and told no No, 20:0320 minutes, 3 secondsit is in that big story and so one more girl asked is it the story where a sari is removed or lady is kidnapped. Which 20:1220 minutes, 12 secondsone you are talking about? I told stop all this discussion. It is my story. It is my own fate that I have to come and talk to you. This Abibanu is different. 20:2420 minutes, 24 secondsHe knew how to enter a chakra viva. He didn't know how to come out of it. That is the type of thing in our sh market. 20:3220 minutes, 32 secondsOut of the so-called 4 8,000 now it has become 4,000 if you remember 200 250 are 20:4020 minutes, 40 secondsreasonably traded and 50 60 are daily trading everyday traded last year data 20:4720 minutes, 47 secondsif you take six individual shares six shares constituted nearly 50% of our trade 20:5820 minutes, 58 secondsthat is the type of a skewed market it is extremely skewed market it is six shares only not 6% I'm talking about in 21:0721 minutes, 7 secondsUS if a particular share crosses 1% half a percent they become very worried they 21:1421 minutes, 14 secondsbegin to discuss about it is a wide spread type of a market here 21:2221 minutes, 22 secondshousehold financial saving you know your household and my household only 15 to 20% are invested in the shares and bonds And this is also recent phenomena. 21:3421 minutes, 34 secondsEarlier it used to be 3 to 5%. in the last two three years because of the arrival of the mutual funds and SIP they 21:4421 minutes, 44 secondsare called that instigating or encouraging people to invest in the market 15 to 20% not directly through 21:5321 minutes, 53 secondsthe mutual fund and 70% of the household financials I mean is in banks EPF and 22:0122 minutes, 1 secondinsurance this is very important to note so unlike us Again roughly in US 60% of the saving goes into the share market. 22:1322 minutes, 13 secondsSo the movement of share is extremely critical for even the middle class there. Everybody is enthusiastic. Our 22:2222 minutes, 22 secondsmiddle class of course do they not want to earn money? Of course they want to earn money. Who doesn't want to? And but 22:2822 minutes, 28 secondsunfortunately there are lot of schemes where they enter. In the 70s there used to be one sanchita scheme in West 22:3722 minutes, 37 secondsBengal. That time the market rate was around 14 or 13 or 14%. But they were giving 40%. 22:4722 minutes, 47 secondsThey used to send in the envelope every day along with the statesman or whichever newspaper you buy it will be 22:5622 minutes, 56 secondssent to your home on the first of the month. It was very popular. they were lending it to all these so-called quote 23:0423 minutes, 4 secondsunquote unorganized sector talas and vegetable vendors and other people and 23:1223 minutes, 12 secondsearning around 50 60% actually so and that sa 23:1923 minutes, 19 secondsgone bust shop one of the Marxist professors became a finance minister he 23:2723 minutes, 27 secondsfelt very unhappy about this whole business he tramped on it and then in 23:3523 minutes, 35 secondsBangalore there used to be one Vineik who was giving two times the amount in the form of a product. There was such a 23:4423 minutes, 44 secondslong queue in a place called Basalanguri in Bangalore to invest with him. People 23:5123 minutes, 51 secondswere so enthusiastic and uh long queue and the police have to be called to make order and you know he was supposed to 24:0024 minuteshave collected 1200 to,400 crores this vine fellow and one fine morning the board was not there the company also was 24:0924 minutes, 9 secondsnot there and again the police have to come and dis dispers the crowd which is around that place and you know lot of
6 comments:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=REV1xzLbB8o
The Indian Economy: Myths vs. Reality • Prof. R. Vaidyanathan Streamed live 104 minutes ago #IndianEconomy #IndiaGrowthStory #Economics
Is India’s economy accurately represented by conventional statistics and international narratives—or is a large part of the real story being overlooked?
Prof. R. Vaidyanathan examines the myths, realities and contradictions shaping our understanding of the Indian economy.
The discussion explores:
• The difference between headline economic indicators and lived reality
• India’s vast informal and household-driven economy
• The role of small businesses and family enterprises
• Savings, consumption, employment and entrepreneurship
• Economic growth, inequality and wealth creation
• How global institutions and commentators perceive India
• The strengths and vulnerabilities hidden behind the numbers
Does the conventional economic framework adequately explain India—or does the country require an entirely different lens? @గడియారం 17 minutes ago Being a patriotic indian feeling so pride and happy for the facts about India sir! Transcropt Today we will take up a topic of uh something different than the global picture and other thing. What is the position of the Indian economy and various types of popular myths are there about the economy? We'll try to you know deal with them. What actually constitute
our economy and how it is functioning or how it is growing. First and foremost is
1:431 minute, 43 secondssome nitwitter suggested and I'm sure Trump picked it up and told this dead economy will be met with like that and
1:521 minute, 52 secondsour local nitweight Rahul Gandhi also picked it up and told our economy is dead which is you know very sad because
2:022 minutes, 2 secondswhatever said and done in the past also the opposition never you know sort of made such a sweeping type of statements
2:112 minutes, 11 secondswhich he is now increasingly making that old jury and this jury and that jury.
2:172 minutes, 17 secondsAnyhow the dead economy statement was really in not in not only from the
2:262 minutes, 26 secondsgoodest badest point of view but factually it was totally wrong actually very interestingly
2:342 minutes, 34 secondsIndia is one of the fastest growing in the world economy. Not only that last
2:412 minutes, 41 secondsyear not I am not telling this IMF told this Indian growth rate contributed
2:482 minutes, 48 secondssomething like 15% for the world grow growth rate this is something very interesting I think I might have
2:562 minutes, 56 secondsmentioned it long time before India and China according to Angus Madison the famous economist are reemerging
3:043 minutes, 4 secondseconomist they are not emerging economies So what was suggested that
3:123 minutes, 12 secondstime was uh that significant amount of global growth rate is contributed by the
3:193 minutes, 19 secondsIndian economy. Indian economy is growing you know give or take above 6% 6.5%.
3:283 minutes, 28 secondsAnd uh and the global major economies are all struggling with 1.5 2% 2.5% and
3:363 minutes, 36 secondsother things. Not only that on uh purchasing power basis our economy is
reaching 30 trillion and on uh nominal basis itself we are much above the UK,
3:513 minutes, 51 secondsFrance and other countries. So let's look at what we have achieved actually which is I'm not if I say something
4:004 minutespeople are not going to oh this professor will be and somebody will say is si somebody will say is cast all type
4:084 minutes, 8 secondsof things will be there but uh what IMF has projected let us analyzed and then
4:164 minutes, 16 secondspresented let's have a quick look at that first slide
4:234 minutes, 23 secondsIf you take the last 10 years of uh GDP growth, you can see there 10 years I
4:314 minutes, 31 secondshave this is what the IMF has presented for real GDP in 2025 compared to what was there in 2015 inflation adjusted.
4:424 minutes, 42 secondsThat's why it's called real GDP. You see India 2015 was 2 trillion. Now it's 4.3
4:504 minutes, 50 secondstrillion. Something like 105% change has taken place. This is something phenomenal.
4:584 minutes, 58 secondsYes, Professor Arvi. I'm going to give full screen to the graphic. You will not be visible on the screen, but you people can hear your voice.
5:085 minutes, 8 secondsNo problem.
5:105 minutes, 10 secondsYeah. Here we go. You are you are doing something different than the Sachin era. Yes, sir. Go ahead sir.
5:195 minutes, 19 secondsYeah. Yeah. This is okay. You can see there the growth rate for 10 years between 15 and 25. For US it is 66%.
5:295 minutes, 29 secondsChina 76%.
5:325 minutes, 32 secondsIndia 105%. Kindly note it. And uh I am not suggesting it. I am only telling the
5:405 minutes, 40 secondsdata collected from IMF. They say that India has stunned the world in the last 10 years. That's a word I am not using
5:485 minutes, 48 secondsit. It has been used by the international monetary fund. You can see Spain is 50%, Australia 58%. All of them
5:575 minutes, 57 secondsare different different but India is above 100%. the phenomenal it's
6:036 minutes, 3 secondsliterally doubling between uh 2015 and 2025 and doubling implies some of them
6:126 minutes, 12 secondssome of the people who are statistically inclined uh 72 is the rule of thumb if
6:196 minutes, 19 secondsyou want to double your growth rate in uh 10 years 7.2% 2% annual average you
6:276 minutes, 27 secondsshould be growing. The rule of 72 or thumb rule of 72 is very popular. If you are growing at 10% then you will be
6:366 minutes, 36 secondsdoubling it in 7.2 years. Anyhow this is the actual picture. So it's not a dead economy. Let's be very clear about it.
6:466 minutes, 46 secondsIt's a very thriving and living and growing economy. Next one.
6:546 minutes, 54 secondsYeah, you can see here what is the myth about our economy is because people who
7:027 minutes, 2 secondsread economic times and mint and other things on a continuous basis business standard they will think corporate is
7:097 minutes, 9 secondsthe major factor in our economy corporate I mean company sector and within that of course Amani Alani and
7:177 minutes, 17 secondsall a more popular that will be the banner line type of a And of course nowadays last couple of
days at least it is Tatas who are occupying the primary space in terms of two groups but actual position is if you
7:357 minutes, 35 secondstake our net domestic product agriculture constitute 17%. These are
7:417 minutes, 41 secondsapproximate plus minus that is how that the line is shown as approximate and government constitute around 19%.
7:537 minutes, 53 secondsPrivate corporate all that which we are making very much noise all the companies put together is 14%.
8:028 minutes, 2 secondsNoncorporate is 50%. that is partnership and properatorship forms along with
8:108 minutes, 10 secondsother type of LLP and other thing. So this is the picture actually half of our economy is partnership and
8:198 minutes, 19 secondsproperatorship economy about which not much is written or not much is talked about because they are all considered as unorganized.
8:298 minutes, 29 secondsUnorganized in India mean you are doici clad and you smoke bees or you know chew tobacco and other. Organized means you
8:388 minutes, 38 secondsare suited, booted and you have a tie matching red color with a blue suit and
8:458 minutes, 45 secondsif at all you smoke you smoke cigar or cigarette that is organized sector and organized of course tie is very
8:548 minutes, 54 secondsimportant because it's very important to note in India if you want to tell a lie you should always have a tie without
9:019 minutes, 1 secondthat you know your lie will not be going any place that's why you can See most of
9:089 minutes, 8 secondsthe lawyers, doctors and chartered accountant always will have a tie. This
9:149 minutes, 14 secondsis very very important thing is laughing is having the waste coat like Neroian
9:209 minutes, 20 secondswaste coat. So there is no question of but if you take the US sorry let's come to that slide let me finish that.
9:329 minutes, 32 secondsIf you compare it with US corporate share in US is something like 70%.
9:399 minutes, 39 secondsAnd you know then government then various other thing and the so-called unorganized will be something like 6%.
9:489 minutes, 48 secondsThat's why they are called residual sector there because in India the kirana shops are all there millions of them and
9:579 minutes, 57 secondsthey are called mom and pop stores but very very few nowadays. Most of them have been converted into blue uniform
10:0510 minutes, 5 secondsand then standing in Walmart or one of those bigger malls in the US. So there
10:1410 minutes, 14 secondsbecause they are five to 6% they are called residual where in US and of course all our
10:2110 minutes, 21 secondseconomist experts are all US trained and US used and most of our bureaucrats
10:2910 minutes, 29 secondspolitician defense people their children are all studying in US or UK. So what is happening in India also it is called
10:3810 minutes, 38 secondsresidual. It's a peculiar country where 50% of the GDP is called residual. Can
10:4510 minutes, 45 secondsyou beat that nowhere else in the world you know this will be acceptable but we have accepted it as a and you know and
10:5410 minutes, 54 secondsresidual not only residual it is also laughed at it is called unorganized and unorganized is used in a sense of being
11:0111 minutes, 1 seconddisorganized and so it has to be organized. It has to become organized and for which efforts have to be taken.
This is the sort of a you know snide or and the word unorganized is itself is to
11:1811 minutes, 18 secondsbe questioned. Actually if you ask me the word non-corporate will be better.
11:2311 minutes, 23 secondsI'll tell you an example simple a vegetable vendor she comes near my home morning in that TVS50 or whatever that
11:3211 minutes, 32 secondsuh she carries one truckload of vegetables in that I do not know she manages she comes set the shop around
11:4211 minutes, 42 seconds7:00 and then she works till evening 6:00 and in between she goes for lunch
11:4911 minutes, 49 secondsor tea or something somebody and you know what She knows her customers, she knows her suppliers, she knows all the
11:5911 minutes, 59 secondsuh local politics, everything. And she is always available 24 by 7 except you
12:0712 minutes, 7 secondsknow one or two days like uh some festival she goes off for her hometown
12:1412 minutes, 14 secondsand you know what in our statistical system she is called unorganized.
12:1912 minutes, 19 secondsI am very puzzled actually that why she should she is much better organized than a multinational company if you ask me.
12:2712 minutes, 27 secondsShe knows all the she's the finance director. She is the HR in charge. She is also marketing in charge. She runs
12:3612 minutes, 36 secondsher show very well. Similarly, next there is a small hotel which is you know makes idli dosa in the morning till
12:4412 minutes, 44 secondsevening and throughout the year. same consistency he is giving dosas and idlies and people come and eat and he is
12:5212 minutes, 52 secondsalso called unorganized and uh you know I was I am a statistic student I was
13:0013 minutesgoing through the national statistical literature you know one thing after a couple of pages government is called
13:0813 minutes, 8 secondsorganized this is something shocking to me government is the most disorganized entity in this in our country And these
13:1713 minutes, 17 secondspeople are all more organized than so the terminology is very very important.
13:2313 minutes, 23 secondsI call it terminological terrorism. You just you know use a terminology and
13:2913 minutes, 29 secondsbrush him aside. That is what is the so we should be very clear that half of our economy is consisting of these people.
13:4013 minutes, 40 secondsNext one sir.
13:4313 minutes, 43 secondsYeah, most of these are majority activity is considered to be its
13:5213 minutes, 52 secondsinformation technology and related services or what we call software that is considered as a major component
14:0014 minutesand that what occupies the space the vros and the infos and you know everything is around that but actually
14:0814 minutes, 8 secondstheir share is 5 to 6% only not more than that the major fastest
14:1614 minutes, 16 secondsgrowing activities are construction, wholesale and retail trade, transport,
14:2314 minutes, 23 secondshotels and restaurant, real estate and ownership of dwellings and other services, professional services,
14:3014 minutes, 30 secondsdoctors, lawyers, priests also included in them. All other services plumber, fitter, carpenter there are 63 type of
14:3814 minutes, 38 secondsservices all of them are included and in each of them the non-corporate actually dominates
14:4614 minutes, 46 secondsthere are more than 70%. In some cases like other than railway transport they
14:5314 minutes, 53 secondsare 90%. In construction in India, we allocate construction under construction
15:0015 minutesunder service sector because it is much more labor oriented. Even though many more of these uh uh machines have come
15:1015 minutes, 10 secondsinto the construction but it is mainly in the organized big construction companies and other a lot of these you
15:1915 minutes, 19 secondsknow single you know house construction contractors they all use labor only.
15:2415 minutes, 24 secondsThat is why we have put it there under services. So these all these
non-corporate in each of them constitute 70 to 80%. In hotels and restaurant it
15:3715 minutes, 37 secondsis much more actually. Next one sir and uh government and corporate
15:4615 minutes, 46 secondsemployment this is another major thing every time government government employees constitute and corporate
15:5415 minutes, 54 secondsemployees put together constitute 12 to 15%. Government employment alone will be around 78%.
16:0216 minutes, 2 secondsBut every time we talk more and more about but the 78% fellows make in
16:1016 minutes, 10 secondsbribery much more than what is possible that is a separate issue and 85% are
16:1816 minutes, 18 secondsself-employed or what are called contract labor. Even in bigger companies today even in manufacturing companies
16:2616 minutes, 26 secondscontract labor share is increasing. They are not keeping them on their roles actually they are keeping them using the
16:3416 minutes, 34 secondscontractors in US if you look at government and corporate will be 90 to 92%.
16:4216 minutes, 42 secondsSelf-employed is relatively lesser 6 to 8%. But uh you know you will be surprised I will tell you I don't want
16:5016 minutes, 50 secondsto tell the name. I was traveling with one uh economic advisor to the government of India. This was in the
16:5716 minutes, 57 secondslate later part of last century and he is you know big- time migrant what I
17:0517 minutes, 5 secondscall economist he comes here and he is from one of those top-notch schools in US. So we were talking and when I I
17:1417 minutes, 14 secondsmentioned you know self-employed and other 80% he was surprised is it really true professor he was asking me I told
17:2217 minutes, 22 secondsyou should know better you are the one who is you know economic advisor to the government so you should know much
17:3017 minutes, 30 secondsbetter about this he was not he somehow thought it is very similar to us anyhow that is how we have lot of these
17:3817 minutes, 38 secondsimported fellows whose knowledge is very abysmally low and who drag us to the
17:4617 minutes, 46 secondsbottom of the picture. Next one and other is share market. This is
17:5317 minutes, 53 secondsanother thing. Every day banner line is shares are going down, shares are going up as if that is going to be the
18:0118 minutes, 1 seconddecisive one. In US for instance, share market is a barometer of their economy.
18:0718 minutes, 7 secondsBut not in India. All the share market companies you take put together then
18:1418 minutes, 14 secondstheir share in the end net domestic product is around 8 to 12%.
18:2018 minutes, 20 secondsSo much noise is made this is what I always call we have a uncanny ability to
18:2718 minutes, 27 secondsfocus on immaterial and inconsequential and then go on talking about that as if
18:3418 minutes, 34 secondsthat is the final thing. So if share markets come down or go up, it's
18:4118 minutes, 41 secondsimportant for the companies which are listed in the market on that there is no doubt but uh it is not for the national economy.
18:5118 minutes, 51 seconds8,000 shares are supposed to be listed and uh in '90s you pay listing fee you get listed.
18:5918 minutes, 59 secondsThat's all. Lot of companies came. one company I remember Tala Dalal he's no
19:0519 minutes, 5 secondsmore and our friend this cricketer very they all they formed a they were telling
19:1419 minutes, 14 secondsabout a company to sell the dues collected from uh the leaves during the
19:2119 minutes, 21 secondswinter and exporting it it's a fresh type of a thing and so many people went and uh booked also in the IPO and that
19:3219 minutes, 32 secondscompany disappeared. So there is a lot of these type of companies came and I call them as billion abimman news in
19:4019 minutes, 40 secondsIndian shady so many people enter the market they do not know how to come out of it I am sure
many of you would have heard about you know not like my student they asked me is he's a new film actor who has come in
19:5619 minutes, 56 secondsthe Bollywood I told no no no and another girl interfered and told no No,
20:0320 minutes, 3 secondsit is in that big story and so one more girl asked is it the story where a sari is removed or lady is kidnapped. Which
20:1220 minutes, 12 secondsone you are talking about? I told stop all this discussion. It is my story. It is my own fate that I have to come and talk to you. This Abibanu is different.
20:2420 minutes, 24 secondsHe knew how to enter a chakra viva. He didn't know how to come out of it. That is the type of thing in our sh market.
20:3220 minutes, 32 secondsOut of the so-called 4 8,000 now it has become 4,000 if you remember 200 250 are
20:4020 minutes, 40 secondsreasonably traded and 50 60 are daily trading everyday traded last year data
20:4720 minutes, 47 secondsif you take six individual shares six shares constituted nearly 50% of our trade
20:5820 minutes, 58 secondsthat is the type of a skewed market it is extremely skewed market it is six shares only not 6% I'm talking about in
21:0721 minutes, 7 secondsUS if a particular share crosses 1% half a percent they become very worried they
21:1421 minutes, 14 secondsbegin to discuss about it is a wide spread type of a market here
21:2221 minutes, 22 secondshousehold financial saving you know your household and my household only 15 to 20% are invested in the shares and bonds And this is also recent phenomena.
21:3421 minutes, 34 secondsEarlier it used to be 3 to 5%. in the last two three years because of the arrival of the mutual funds and SIP they
21:4421 minutes, 44 secondsare called that instigating or encouraging people to invest in the market 15 to 20% not directly through
21:5321 minutes, 53 secondsthe mutual fund and 70% of the household financials I mean is in banks EPF and
22:0122 minutes, 1 secondinsurance this is very important to note so unlike us Again roughly in US 60% of the saving goes into the share market.
22:1322 minutes, 13 secondsSo the movement of share is extremely critical for even the middle class there. Everybody is enthusiastic. Our
22:2222 minutes, 22 secondsmiddle class of course do they not want to earn money? Of course they want to earn money. Who doesn't want to? And but
22:2822 minutes, 28 secondsunfortunately there are lot of schemes where they enter. In the 70s there used to be one sanchita scheme in West
22:3722 minutes, 37 secondsBengal. That time the market rate was around 14 or 13 or 14%. But they were giving 40%.
22:4722 minutes, 47 secondsThey used to send in the envelope every day along with the statesman or whichever newspaper you buy it will be
22:5622 minutes, 56 secondssent to your home on the first of the month. It was very popular. they were lending it to all these so-called quote
23:0423 minutes, 4 secondsunquote unorganized sector talas and vegetable vendors and other people and
23:1223 minutes, 12 secondsearning around 50 60% actually so and that sa
23:1923 minutes, 19 secondsgone bust shop one of the Marxist professors became a finance minister he
23:2723 minutes, 27 secondsfelt very unhappy about this whole business he tramped on it and then in
23:3523 minutes, 35 secondsBangalore there used to be one Vineik who was giving two times the amount in the form of a product. There was such a
23:4423 minutes, 44 secondslong queue in a place called Basalanguri in Bangalore to invest with him. People
23:5123 minutes, 51 secondswere so enthusiastic and uh long queue and the police have to be called to make order and you know he was supposed to
24:0024 minuteshave collected 1200 to,400 crores this vine fellow and one fine morning the board was not there the company also was
24:0924 minutes, 9 secondsnot there and again the police have to come and dis dispers the crowd which is around that place and you know lot of
Post a Comment